He started by thanking and praising various staffers and family members, and shared some kind words about his recently deceased mother-in-law Amalija Knavs. ![]() Trump’s speech was unusually subdued - or at least the beginning of it was. But CNN anchors were impressed that he called DeSantis “Ron,” as he usually refers to him as “ DeSantimonious” or some other nasty nickname. Was there a teasing tone in Trump’s voice as he noted his two distant rivals are still fighting over second place? Sure. Donald Trump appears to chide Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley after they are projected to finish far behind him in the Iowa caucuses /hOVA1mPZ0s- The Recount January 16, 2024 “I want to congratulate Ron and Nikki for having a good time together … We don’t even know what the outcome of second place is.” This is what passes for Trump being nice: during his victory speech he congratulated “Ron and Nikki” for “having a good time together.” You can read the rest of my takeaways from Monday night, including what now awaits DeSantis and Haley, here. He was outspent by both Team Haley ($37 million) and Team DeSantis ($35 million) in Iowa campaign advertising (Trump and his allies spent $18 million). His roughly 30-point margin of victory was well over double the all-time record in contested Iowa Republican Caucus history, even though he may have suffered from turnout lowered by brutally cold weather and the lack of doubt about who was going to finish first (as opposed to second and third, which was indeed a close competition as predicted). ![]() But Trump also beat Haley among college-educated voters and independents. According to entrance polls, he trounced DeSantis among self-described “very conservative” voters by a 60 percent to 28 percent margin, and beat the Floridian among evangelical voters by a 51 percent to 29 percent margin. He carried 98 of Iowa’s 99 counties, and led in urban, suburban, and rural areas. Neither strategy worked out.ĭonald Trump won half the Caucus vote against DeSantis, Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, and some other random names. And Nikki Haley was going to scoop up anti-Trump, Trump-skeptic, and electability-mad voters and roll out of Iowa and into New Hampshire with a head of steam as the only real challenger left in the race. Ron DeSantis was going to run to Trump’s right and peel off MAGA voters (particularly evangelicals) as a more effective and consistent champion of their various causes. ![]() As the probability of her victory dropped throughout the night, her chances went down until eventually, it swung toward Donald Trump having 95 percent chance of winning.I just wrote about how Trump’s dominating victory on Monday night paves him a virtually unobstructed path to the Republican nomination: on Election Night, the needle had Hillary Clinton's probability of winning at 85 percent based off pre-election polls. According to The New York Times, the needle "predicts the outcome of an election based on incoming results, prior election results and demographic data."Īt 7:30 p.m. Some background first: In the waning days of the 2016 election, The New York Times' Upshot team used a graphic "needle" to predict the outcome of the race. Live updates: Pennsylvania special election.During the Pennsylvania special congressional election, the needle went down entirely, causing a storm of tweets. ![]() Pennsylvania congressional district candidates neck-and-neck until the very end 01:59įor political watchers on Twitter on election days, following The New York Times election "needle" is an addiction - before it's then derided for swinging too wildly or simply being wrong.
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